Bluerating | March 2025
The current banking risk seems to be affected, more than those that preceded it in 2020 between Intesa and UBI and in 2007 between Banca Intesa and Sanpaolo IMI and between UniCredit and Capitalia, by a series of sins that seem to recall the seven deadly sins (anger, greed, envy, pride, gluttony, sloth, lust).
The first sin is the presence of cross-shareholdings between the banks and the major shareholders involved, which make everything more intricate and less clear: more than a game of takeover bids, it seems like a game of goose in which the winner is not the best but the luckiest in rolling the dice.
The second sin is that in the past, politics and the government have played a more discreet role – but no less influential -, while in the current game of risk both have exposed themselves with statements that are not very appropriate and certainly unusual for the world of finance and markets.
The interest of the Ministry of Finance is more than legitimate given that it is a shareholder of Monte dei Paschi, equally evident that the Bank, previously a fiefdom of a certain political party, was dying and today has finally been restored and resurrected at the expense of Italian taxpayers.
If the protection of Monte dei Paschi, a national pride since 1472, could justify a legitimate involvement of the government, the market harbors the suspicion that the current executive may be defending the interests of other large private shareholders of the Bank.
The third sin is that the current game of risk, rather than a singular contest between noble duelists, seems to recall the Wild West and in particular the shootout at the O.K. Corral: some regret the style of the bankers of the past, no less determined and aggressive than the current ones, but certainly more discreet and elegant (think of Enrico Cuccia and Vincenzo Maranghi of Mediobanca).
The fourth sin is that the current banking game of risk seems, more than in the past, to be characterized as a clash between different personalities – some with suspected narcissistic disorders – partly driven more by personal competition than by a strategic and altruistic vision.
The fifth sin is that, with the sole exception of UniCredit with Commerzbank, the current game of risk appears to be a backyard fight, at a time when, rather than waging war at home, it would be essential for the country to look to the European market because – as Mario Draghi reminded us – today either we build Europe or we die.
The sixth sin is that in this battle of all against all, it is worrying the univocal attention to the share holders (shareholders), flattered and enticed by promises of stellar earnings (dividends), compared to the stakeholders (customers, employees, companies) who are the true and irreplaceable asset of any successful organization. In this sense, the declaration of the dismissal of 3,900 employees made by Bettina Orlopp, current CEO of Commerzbank, is emblematic, with the aim of restoring the accounts of her Bank, making herself more attractive to current shareholders to avoid being put in check by Andrea Orcel.
The seventh sin is that there are still few banks and bankers who are fully aware of the revolution that will hit them soon: in the coming years the banking sector will undergo a radical transformation, the second digital revolution is already changing the rules of the game giving customers and professionals an increasing protagonism never seen before.
In this game of OCA, only the banks and bankers who will be able to anticipate and implement the projects of all stakeholders (individuals, families, businesses and the country) will survive, the other banks will slowly disappear and their bankers will be condemned to a pension – in spite of the saints – golden.
Nicola Ronchetti