Advisor | October 2025
When UniCredit withdrew its public exchange offer (IPO) for the acquisition of Banco BPM on July 22nd, Giuseppe Castagna, head of Banco BPM, declared with a happiness that could be read on his face that after nine months of stalemate resulting from the passivity rule: “Now we’re looking at banks similar to us and we’ll make an amicable and agreed-upon transaction.”
The CEO from Piazza Meda then named similar banks, specifying that “we’re looking at partners dedicated to the local area and SMEs. MPS, Bper, and Crédit Agricole are similar to us.”
The Bper option seems the least likely, given that Modena is busy integrating the recently acquired Banca Popolare di Sondrio. This leaves two options on the table: a simpler one with Crédit Agricole Italia, and a decidedly more complex one with Monte dei Paschi di Siena.
The marriage with Crédit Agricole Italia is considered the most likely: Giuseppe Castagna spoke clearly and publicly about it in an interview with Milano Finanza in August and relaunched it on another occasion in mid-September on Class CNBC.
Castagna appears highly motivated, his eyes lighting up when he talks about his French colleagues. There are many reasons. First, this time, it would be former target Castagna, under his leadership, who is moving the operation with a long-standing, well-known, and trusted partner (see the partnership with AGOS).
Second, Banque Verte is very similar to Banca Popolare di Milano, founded in and for the local community, with strong roots dating back to the founding of Crédit Agricole Mutuel in France in 1885, inspired by the principles of cooperation and support for local agriculture and industry.
After the merger with Piazza Meda, the French stake would be diluted to 35% thanks to the contribution of Anima shares, of which the Milanese bank holds 90%, which would allow the bank to avoid paying out too much cash. Crédit Agricole Italia is worth €5.5 billion, and the parent company holds 76%: therefore, €4.2 billion would be needed to acquire it. Piazza Meda has excess capital of a couple of billion and could also offer part of its stake in AGOS (39%). The merger with Crédit Agricole Italia would allow BPM to become the third-largest operator in Italy in terms of branches (2,500 branches) and the second-largest in terms of customer loans (behind Intesa Sanpaolo), strengthening its competitive position.
That said, Castagna can’t count without the host, namely the government (UniCredit docet), and as a seasoned banker, he knows he can’t rule out a consolidation deal with MPS, especially one dear to our government. Indeed, he was keen to point out that the deal with Siena is “certainly another opportunity,” being the second-largest distributor of Anima products and in which Banco holds a 9% stake.
But beyond the financial alchemy, in which seasoned bankers wallow like fish in the open sea, and the newfound influence of national governments in finance (not only in Italy but also in Germany and Spain), what really seems to matter are the elective affinities between people who, in this case, transcend national borders, to the point of preferring similar “foreigners” to dissimilar compatriots.
Is it the effect of globalization, empathy, or personal ambition?
Nicola Ronchetti