Funds People | December 2025
Any analysis of the future of investments must take into account a fundamental segmentation. To understand how the industry will change, it is necessary to distinguish service models based on customer types, divided not only by generation but also by availability of financial assets.
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When looking at the future of investments, the fundamental premise is that today, 57% of Italians save a more or less significant portion of their income, but only 30% invest. These data indicate ample room for development and great potential for Italy: the possibility of doubling the current investor base in the future.
However, each segment will proceed along different trajectories, and Italian asset management will need to accommodate them by developing new services or strengthening existing ones.
PRIVATE MARKETS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS AND HNWI
Let’s start with “high-end” clients, with assets of €1 million or more in the private sector, and high-net-worth individuals with assets exceeding €50 million. In Italy, this segment includes approximately 2 million individuals. The main trend for the future, driven by social and demographic trends, is that the per capita wealth available to each of these individuals will increase, but the number of individuals in this segment will not. In other words, there will be a growing concentration of wealth in high-end portfolios.
In terms of implications for the industry, in the coming years I predict that an already existing trend will consolidate: private clients and HNWIs will increasingly turn to a high-value, personalized, ad hoc advisory model, and that the game will hinge on the system’s profitability.
There will be a significant increase in investments in private markets, both private equity and private debt. These assets, and the strategies dedicated to them, could have a disruptive effect on the world of advanced investments in the future, similar to that of mutual funds in the past, though perhaps to a lesser extent. Currently, investments in private markets account for 0.8% of total Italian assets. It’s conceivable that they will grow to 3% over the next two or three years, a rapid growth, with a 5x multiple, but not exponential.
ETFS AS BUILDING BLOCKS FOR UPPER AFFLUENT
Moving to the upper affluent and low-private segment, in the wealth range between €200,000 and €300,000 and €1 million, I believe two closely related models will emerge: advanced advisory and passive management. The ETF universe is growing significantly as their role as low-margin, highly efficient products is emerging.
Upper affluent investors are increasingly inclined to entrust portfolio construction to qualified professionals, who are compensated based on their performance and ability to build highly efficient portfolios. In this service model, ETFs represent the perfect building blocks, especially during periods of strong market performance. Advisors can turn to investment instruments with lower added value, because it is not the managers, but the advisors themselves who make the difference in achieving their clients’ financial goals.
Even in this segment, in the coming years, there will be a greater concentration of wealth among an increasingly older and smaller population. And as life expectancy increases, the investment perspective is also changing, with stocks and supplementary pensions becoming increasingly important.
ENHANCE THE MASS MARKET
Then there’s the affluent segment, worth a total of €2 trillion. This segment has always been overlooked by the distribution and network industries, but in recent years, banks have come to the conclusion that it’s worth capitalizing on. How? Through the industrialization and standardization of the successful model already applied in private banking. Advisors cannot serve the so-called “mass market” with the same level of customization they offer to higher-end clients. The key is establishing a relationship of trust with clients and then serving their needs through standardized offerings.
High-net-worth investors want to have large, international brand managers in their portfolios. Medium-net-worth clients, who have established a relationship of trust with their bank managers, also trust banks’ investment offerings.
For this reason, the model banks are pursuing is the internalization of asset management companies. This has partly driven the rapid concentration of recent years. Large banks are valuing their asset managers, more so today than in the past: consider Intesa Sanpaolo, which has included Eurizon in its wealth management division; Anima has joined BPM; Arca is the asset manager of BPER, Amundi, and Crédit Agricole.
In this model, the role of the professional will become increasingly central. All banks, without exception, are moving to transform the traditional financial advisor into a global advisor. How? By giving them the opportunity to leave their branches, operate off-site, reduce employee relationships, and increase the weight of variable compensation over fixed-term pay.
BIG TRENDS: CHALLENGER BANKS, SUSTAINABILITY, LONGEVITY
A potential revolution in the coming years could come from challenger banks. They could attract many young customers thanks to their highly efficient models, low costs, and digital focus. And young people are the affluent of the future. The media diet of financial education is increasingly shifting to social media and virtual relationships; if new operators were able to establish themselves as leaders in electronic money, digital payments with payback, and digital trading and investment services, they could make a qualitative leap and become players in asset management. In this regard, challenger banks could even bridge the enormous pension gap in Italy, for example by offering savings plans of just a few euros per month to be allocated to retirement income.
Their arrival could have a disruptive effect on the banking system, sending the message that it’s possible to access all traditional banking services without ever leaving home and at very low costs, similar to Amazon’s approach to retail. Traditional banks, of course, aren’t standing idly by and are already launching their own brands to compete, such as Intesa Sanpaolo’s Isybank or UniCredit’s Buddy Bank.
The topic of sustainability has lost much of its luster in recent years, yet it remains a matter of course, especially among fund selectors and fund buyers. Younger savers and those with higher net worth are more sensitive to ESG issues, but the former don’t have large amounts of capital to invest, and the latter are still a minority. The future evolution of SRI will depend on geopolitical developments, but I believe there won’t be any major changes in the next two to three years.
The final major issue is longevity, which is completely changing investors’ perspectives. People are living longer, but we need protection, income, and healthcare for old age. Private savings will play an increasingly important role in replacing the public sector. The generational shift in wealth will also have another less-discussed effect: it’s not just a transfer from older people to younger ones, but also from men to women, who live on average two to three years longer and are younger in couples. This will change everything: women tend to trust advisors more, and their role, until now neglected by banks, will become increasingly important.
Nicola Ronchetti